The Core Formula: The 4% Rule
The most widely used method comes from the Trinity Study, which found that withdrawing 4% of your portfolio annually, adjusted for inflation, has a very high probability of lasting 30+ years.
FIRE Number = Annual Expenses × 25
Why 25? Because 1 ÷ 0.04 = 25. If you spend $40,000/year, your FIRE number is $40,000 × 25 = $1,000,000.
Step-by-Step Calculation
Step 1: Calculate Your Annual Expenses
Track every dollar you spend for 3-6 months. Include rent or mortgage, food, utilities, insurance, transportation, and entertainment. Do not forget irregular expenses like car repairs or medical bills — average them out monthly. Multiply by 12 to get your annual expenses.
Step 2: Multiply by 25 (The 4% Rule)
Annual Expenses × 25 = Your baseline FIRE number. This assumes a 4% safe withdrawal rate. If your annual spending is $50,000, your FIRE number is $1,250,000.
Step 3: Adjust for Inflation
If you are 10 years from retirement, $50,000 today will be roughly $67,000 at 3% annual inflation. Your FIRE number should reflect future expenses, not today's. Use a 3% inflation rate for conservative planning.
Step 4: Factor In a Safety Margin
Many FIRE practitioners prefer a 3.5% or even 3% withdrawal rate for extra safety, especially for retirements longer than 30 years. At 3.5%, multiply expenses by 28.6 instead of 25. At 3%, multiply by 33.3.
What About Coast FIRE?
Coast FIRE is the point where your existing investments will grow to your FIRE number by your target retirement age — even if you never invest another dollar. You only need to cover your living expenses ("coast") until then.
Coast FIRE Number = FIRE Number ÷ (1 + r)^n
where r = expected annual return and n = years until retirement
Calculate your FIRE number now
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Key Takeaways
- Your FIRE number = annual expenses × 25 (using the 4% rule)
- Track real expenses for 3-6 months — guessing leads to wrong targets
- Adjust for inflation, especially if you are more than 5 years out
- Consider a 3-3.5% withdrawal rate for retirements longer than 30 years
- Coast FIRE lets you stop contributing early if compound growth does the rest